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Crypto gamblers have staked an astonishing $445 million on a possible presidential race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, driving election betting to unprecedented ranges on Polymarket.
Dune Analytics knowledge exhibits that Polymarket’s cumulative wager quantity reached $1.03 billion in July, up from $672.94 million in June. This marks a dramatic improve in comparison with July 2023, when the platform’s cumulative wager quantity was $283.16 million.
Polymarket permits customers to wager on varied information occasions, branding itself as “the world’s largest prediction market.” Customers can wager on over 1,000 totally different outcomes, together with the US presidential election, which has drawn vital curiosity in latest weeks.
The platform noticed a spike in customers and bets following headlines about Harris’ doubtless Democratic nomination and an assassination try on Trump, the main Republican contender, earlier this month.
Regardless of its US-focused subjects, Polymarket stays inaccessible to American customers immediately, who should use VPNs and crypto wallets with USDC to put bets.
Trump vs. Harris stats
Within the week following President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the Democratic race, Harris doubled the Democrats’ odds of successful, transferring from 18% to 38%. These beneficial properties primarily stemmed from quite a few smaller bets, whereas Trump’s assist got here from just a few high-stakes bettors.
Regardless of Harris’s latest beneficial properties, Polymarket whales (large-scale bettors) overwhelmingly favor Trump, who retains a major lead with a 59% probability of successful the elections.
The platform’s interactive map and trending market evaluation replicate a dynamic and closely contested election season. Key battleground states present sturdy Republican favorability, with swing states like Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania favoring Republicans, whereas Michigan leans Democrat.
General, Republicans are favored to regulate the presidency and the Senate, whereas Democrats are favored to regulate the Home.
Kamala Harris at the moment has a 96% probability of being the Democratic nominee, with Michelle Obama trailing at 2%. Josh Shapiro leads the Democratic vice presidential nominee race with 32%, adopted carefully by Mark Kelly at 29%.
Bettors give Kamala Harris a 60% probability of successful the favored vote, whereas Trump holds a 38% probability.
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