This can be a long-winded means of claiming the market isn’t “flawed.” It merely displays all accessible info. If you happen to accurately disagree with the market, you will be rewarded for that perception, by betting your self. U.S. customers have options to Polymarket, which is barred from serving them below a regulatory settlement. If you happen to consider the Polymarket whale a) has meaningfully pushed up the worth of the Trump contract, and b) is flawed, you’ll be able to merely guess towards her or him or them by going lengthy on Harris. Despite the fact that it’s not risk-free – Harris nonetheless must win on your guess to repay – in the event you thought her “actual” odds had been 55%, you’d be shopping for one thing price 55 cents for 40 cents right now. Even in the event you won’t be keen to do this, different market contributors will. So if the Polymarket whale is certainly misinformed, now that we all know there’s a (doubtlessly misinformed) whale, you’d anticipate the chances to say no as merchants incorporate this new info. Until in fact, the prediction markets are typically dependable and the whale hasn’t influenced them a lot.
