The Volatility Index ($VIX) is one among my key sentiment indicators and it has a historical past of precisely predicting corrections and bear markets. We have had neither with out the VIX first clearing an vital hurdle within the 17-20 vary. Bear markets require an enormous dose of concern and panic and the VIX acts as our inventory market meteorologist – one which predicts main market storms as they’re approaching. All through this whole secular bull market, the S&P 500’s poor intervals of efficiency have been marked by VIX readings above 20. Relatively than repeat these outcomes on this article, you may try a Buying and selling Locations article that I wrote in November 2023, “What Are The Probabilities Of A Market Crash? This Indicator Says ZERO!”
On current Buying and selling Locations Dwell YouTube reveals and in my common emails to our EB.com members, I’ve constantly mentioned the numerous improve in threat that accompanies a VIX shut above 20. I don’t take it calmly and neither do you have to. However try what occurred over the previous few weeks because the VIX spiked and neared 20:
We had a straight-up transfer off the October 2023 low and the above chart merely reeks of slowing bullish momentum all through the second half of Q1. I anticipated March weak spot, however it was delayed into April. That last transfer decrease in October was characterised by the massive VIX improve – finally with closes on the VIX above 20. As soon as that VIX returned beneath 17, the promoting and correction was over and the bull market resumed. Therefore, the explanation for my November article linked above.
Once I consider a bounce just like the one we had final week, I wish to see if there is a resumption of the “threat on” market surroundings. Listed below are a number of ratios that I wish to observe and the way they responded through the bounce:
These 3 ratios all bounced greater with the S&P 500, however all stay in downtrends that started earlier than the S&P 500 promoting did. That tells me that “threat off” nonetheless stays in play to some extent and we’ll want additional affirmation {that a} short-term backside is in play. IF we do flip decrease once more, watch the VIX. If we see recent new lows on the S&P 500 and the concern dissipates (ie, VIX stays beneath 20), I might view that as a optimistic sign.
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Have an awesome week forward and pleased buying and selling!
Tom
Tom Bowley is the Chief Market Strategist of EarningsBeats.com, an organization offering a analysis and academic platform for each funding professionals and particular person traders. Tom writes a complete Every day Market Report (DMR), offering steerage to EB.com members day by day that the inventory market is open. Tom has contributed technical experience right here at StockCharts.com since 2006 and has a basic background in public accounting as nicely, mixing a novel ability set to method the U.S. inventory market.
